Igast "skeptikutele" ja samuti ka neile kes mu järgnevast jutust maagiale tõestust leida loodavad, soovitan lisaks sellist raamatut nagu A.. F. Chalmers, "Mis asi see on, mida nimetatakse teaduseks?". Vähemalt selle esimesed kuus peatükki.
Raamatu arvustusest lõike:
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us.
"Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh.We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
But besides that, here is the problem with the book. It is long on problem and short (or vague) on solution.
Basically, he prescribes living with a lot of little failures in order to maximize the chance of a big win, while protecting against the big failures (in investing, for example).We need more exposition on that.
The world around us is not random as the writer would have us believe. It only looks random if we don't know enough about it.
There are 2 worlds: Mediocristan and Extremistan. Mediocristan is largely modeled by the bell curve and Extremistan is modeled by power laws or by unknown distributions. The danger lies in using bell-curve (Mediocristan) thinking in Extremistan.
Taleb sets forth the idea that modern humans are often unaware of the very existence of randomness. They tend to explain random outcomes as non-random.